Ground Transport Group - Who are the winners if robocabs force taxi drivers off the road?

Tesla is the latest company to throw its hat into the robotaxi ring, with chief executive Elon Musk expecting its driverless cabs to be on the roads in 2027.

While Waymo, Cruze and Baidu have taken the lead with autonomous taxis already carrying paying passengers, Tesla founder Mr Musk last month unveiled his firm’s Cybercab robotaxi and robovan, which can carry goods and up to 20 passengers. With Tesla’s cars and Cybertrucks already on our streets and the SpaceX programme operational, he said Cybercabs will be the company’s next big focus.

Assistance

The futuristic-looking two-seater robotaxi has two doors but no mirrors, steering wheel or pedals. Instead, the BBC reports that passengers will use an app on their phones or use the vehicle’s touch-screen to set their destination, pay, etc, with the robovan intended to operate in the same way.

By taking the taxi driver out of the equation, it relies on the passengers to do everything. And it is not just conversation and pointing out landmarks and points of interest that they will be missing out on.

While someone who is fit and healthy might easily hop in and out of a robocab or van, what about those with disabilities who require a wheelchair or assistance dog, or those who require help getting into and out of a cab, let alone helping carry their shopping to their front door?

Are they expected to book and pay for a robovan to accommodate these and then struggle to get into and out of the vehicle themselves?

And parents trying to juggle children, shopping and a pram or pushchair are going to find it tough without the help of an obliging taxi driver.

Safety

At the event, which Tesla dubbed “We, Robot,” Mr Musk repeated his view that “fully self-driving vehicles will be safer than those operated by humans and could even earn owners money by being rented out for rides”.

The LA Times reports that Mr Musk spoke of his vision for an ad-hoc taxi service, in which owners of Tesla vehicles equipped with Full Self-Driving technology would be able to deploy them to pick up paying customers.

This means that anyone who owns an FSD-equipped Tesla can use it as a robotaxi as a side-hustle, making money from it rather than it sitting on a driveway or company car park all day.

Mr Musk sees this as a logical next step for technology that is already present in many Teslas. But unlike Waymo cars which use tested and approved laser-based sensors to navigate their environment, Teslas rely on cameras alone to do the job. So far, Tesla’s FSD technology is not capable of operating without a driver present.

And Sam Abuelsamid, a transportation analyst at Guidehouse Insights warns in the LA Times: “Even without drivers, autonomous taxis have expenses, such as charging, cleaning and insurance, which eat into profits.

“No one has really yet figured out a business model for robotaxis.”

As Waymo and others continue their robotaxi journey, the industry is still in its infancy and has plenty of teething problems – as well as major issues – to address, including ownership. Will individuals such as taxi drivers or base owners be able to buy and run robotaxis, or will it require much larger investment and operation, such as Google owner Alphabet, which owns Waymo?

Whatever the implications and practicalities, we know from experience not to bet against Mr Musk to do the impossible.

All information is correct at time of publication. Information provided within this article may have changed over time. No responsibility for its accuracy or correctness is assumed by John Patons Insurance Services or any of its employees.